Should I Use Martingale in Sports Betting?

The Martingale Strategy is a popular betting strategy that was popular since the 18th century. It is one of the simplest strategy compared to others like Flat-betting, Unit-Size betting, or Compounded Strategy. 

The concept of martingale strategy is to generate profit by chasing previous losses by betting with a larger amount. 

Martingale Strategy only follow 2 simple rules

• Flat bet when win
• Double bet size when lose 

This strategy works bet when the odds of winning is 50% and payout is 1:2. However, it is often difficult to punt on a football game with odds 2.00 that wins consistently. 

For example:

Scenario 1:

Player bets on Team A with $10 at odds $2.00. 

If Team A wins, players keeps the profit and bet $10 on the next game. 

$10 bet return $20

Profit : $10

Scenario 2:

Player bets on Team A with $10 at odds $2.00. 

If Team A loses Bet 1 (-$10), Player will bet $20 on the next game at odds 2.00.

$20 bet returns $40

$40 - $20(capital) -$10(loss from Bet 1) = +$10

Profit: +$10

Scenario 3:

Player loses 5 games in a row, winning only at Bet 6

Bet 1: -$10

Bet 2: -$20

Bet 3: -$40

Bet 4: -$80

Bet 5: -$160

Bet 6: $320 640 1280 2560     5120

Total amount bet: $320 + $160 + $80 + $40 + $20 + $10 = $630

Amount won: $640

Profit: $10

Pros

• Using the Martingale Strategy, you will almost be guaranteed profit if you have a large enough bankroll.

Cons

• Using the Martingale Strategy, you will need a extremely large bankroll to tide over long losing streak. A 10 game losing streak would amount to $5,120 and more than $10,000 if you started out with $10 on Bet 1. As you can see, the bet size increase exponentially. The regular punter would not be able to stand the heat of a losing streak.

• In football betting, it is hard to pick winners at odds 2.00.
• You are essentially risking a HUGE amount to win back your initial bet - $10.

Some of you might encounter this before. Manchester United past 5 games have been Total Goal Under 2.5. Let's just back Manchester United Total Goal over 2.5 until we win. This is a classic example of Gambler's Fallacy where past events have no influence over future event.

Should I Use Martingale?

You can choose to use Martingale Strategy if:

• Willing to risk a big amount to win a small amount.
• Have a Huge Bankroll.
• You are playing short-term. Hit and run after a designation winning amount.
• You are winning to lose your whole bankroll.

You should AVOID Martingale Strategy if:

• You think you can be a long-term winner using Martingale.
• You have a small bankroll.
• You are not willing to lose your bankroll in a short period of time.
• You think you are due to win - Gambler's Fallacy