New Year New Me ?

Happy New Year to the my visitors who stumbled upon my blog!

It is not easy, juggling work, school, starting a small startups and blogging together at the same time. Wish there is more than 24 hours in a day. Don't we all?

Anyway January has been so far so good. Bear with my on the poor layout of the blog, I promise I will make it user friendly soon.

Betting wise...

Currently my snowball bet is on Step 6 on

Eibar to win Las Palmas, $70 @ odds 1.58 to win $112 

I started a Martingale bet on Australia League better on TG Under 2.5 with 1 unit and doubling if loses. So far raking in more than 50% in profit, started with $400 and currently on $603. 

So next bet ladies and gentlemen, Central Coast v Melbourne Victory, Tg Under 2.5, $10

• My overall current bankroll is $1349. 
• Target is to win at least 10-20% per month. 
• Betting 1 unit is 3% of overall bankroll 
• Hope to have at least $5000 at the end of 2016 

Stay tuned for more updates guys...

Do I Need to Set A Goal For Sports Betting?

Imagine dribbling the ball, eyes fixated on the ball, not looking at where you are going, running down a football field, hoping to score a goal.  This is exactly what you will look like in sports betting without a goal. Here are some key factors as to what kind of goal to set.

• Goal must be Achievable
• Setting a realistic goal
• Wanting to win $10000 from $10 is impossible without a proper plan

• Goals must be specific
• Set clear goals
• Don't set goal like 'I want to win in the long run' 
• Set something like ' I want to win $100 per week' 
• The more specific your goal is, the more likely you will strive to make it work

• Payoff must worthwhile
• No point in setting a goal which you win at odds $1.01
• You need to win 100 games and just lose 1 game to break even.
• Set a goal which you can see the profit, that leaves you with a sense of satisfaction and pride, rather than a spare change.

Basic Sports Betting Tips Part 1

Have you tried means and ways but still fail to win sports betting? Do you believe that you can win in sports betting? Do you plan to start getting serious and finally win some cash from sports betting? Well, these are some basic tips and advises that can help you to improve on your style and betting pattern to increase the chances of winning in sports betting. 

Tip No. 1 - Bet what you can afford 

Always, and I repeat, always bet what you can afford. If you HAVE to bet on sports. Set aside some money purely for betting. Do not use money for bills, debts, groceries to bet on sports. Having set aside money got sports betting, you can bet with a clear mind, and not be using scare money which might affect your mindset when better. This increase the chance of you making a wiser choice on which team to bet, thus winning money.  Money Management is very important in sports betting.


Tip No. 2 - Bet with you mind not your heart

If you are a hardcore Leeds United, and they are up against the Manchester City. Who would you place your money on? What if your favourite team has all its star players missing through injury or suspension. Would you still bet on your favourite team just because your heart says so? 1 simple rule of thumb is not to bet on matches where your favourite team is playing. This reduces the subconscious feeling of wanting your team to win, thus placing your money on them despite going against a much stronger opponent. Always bet when you are sure that the team you bet on is going to win and not based on support or feeling. Supporting your team is one thing, winning money is another.


Tip No. 3 - Do not bet on unknown league

Indonesia league 2 or Greek reserve league games just to name a few. These matches have no coverage and you have absolutely no clue even if the match is taking place. Always place bet on mainstream matches which have live coverage so you can track the results. However, personally I focus on The English Premier League and avoid Italian league.


Tip No. 4 - Never pay for tips 

 Paying for tips is like giving money away. If you bet on Asian Handicap, you have an almost 50% chance to win. Most tipping company just provide tips, and the tip loses, they just give you another tip to recoup the losses, almost Martingale like.


Tip No. 5 - High odds are high for a reason

Do not be tempted by playing on exact score with high odds like paying 1:50. These long shots are high for a reason. You cannot strike a good amount of time to win long term with such bets. It will be better to bet on Fixed odds or Asian Handicap

What is Asian Handicap?

Asian Handicap is a betting type in which the 'stronger' team start with a handicap on the market. Thus, needing to win by more than 1 goal for punter to win.

The main advantage of Asian Handicap or AH, is it reduces the possible outcome from 3 ( in 1x2) to 2. This simplification give punters an almost 50% chance of winning.

Here is a quick explanation of the Asian Handicap (AH):

LEVEL BALL
	Home	Handiccap	Away
	Team A	0:0	Team B

If you bet on Team A : You win if Team A win. Bet is refunded on a draw.

If you bet on Team B : You win if Team B wins. Bet is refunded on a draw.

HALF BALL

	Home	Handiccap	Away
	Team A	0:1/2	Team B

If you bet on Team A : You win if Team A win.

If you bet on Team B : You win if Team B wins or draw.

ONE BALL

	Home	Handiccap	Away
	Team A	0:1	Team B

If you bet on Team A : You win if Team A wins by 2 goals or more. Your bet is refunded if Team A                                         wins by 1 goal

If you bet on Team B : You win if Team B wins or draw. Your bet is refunded if Team B loses by 1                                         goal. 

ONE AND HALF BALL

	Home	Handiccap	Away
	Team A	0:11/2	Team B

If you bet on Team A : You win if Team A wins by 2 goals or more.

If you bet on Team B : You win if Team B wins, draw or lose by 1 goal. 

Now for the slightly more advanced terms

QUARTER BALL 

Staking half your bet amount on LEVEL BALL and half your stake HALF BALL

	Home	Handiccap	Away
	Team A	0:1/4	Team B

If you bet on Team A : You win if Team A wins. You lose half your bet if Team A draws.

If you bet on Team B : You win if Team B wins. You win half your bet if Team B draws

THREE QUARTER BALL

Staking half your bet on HALF BALL and half your stake on ONE BALL

	Home	Handiccap	Away
	Team A	0:3/4	Team B

If you bet on Team A : You win if Team A wins by 2 goals. You win half your bet if Team A wins                                           by 1 goal.

If you bet on Team B : You win if Team B wins or draw. You lose half your bet if Team B loses by 1                                       goal.

So should I bet on Asian Handicap or the traditional 1x2 wagering?  Here are some Pros and Cons of Asian Handicap and see which style suits you the best.

Pros

• Increases the probability of success as there are only 2 options to choose from.
• Good for Accumulators
• Depending on the handicap, you sometimes can win even though your team loses.

Cons

• Asian Handicap could be hard to understand in the beginning
• Lower odds for underdogs as compared to 1x2 fixed odds
• The handicap given by bookmakers may influence your decision on the game.

If you are unsure of the terminology, feel free to comment and I will get back to you as soon as possible. Alternatively, you can email me at iamfishcakes@gmail.com

Compound Staking

Albert Einstein famously quoted ' Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world'

Compound staking is a simple strategy to build your bankroll.

One simple method is to bet on your most confident pick. try to avoid odds lower than 1.20 and you would do fine.

Here is an example:

• Using $10 for first bet
• Bet on odds 1.20 and above
• Win 30 games in a row

Bet No.	Bet amount	Odds	Winnings
1	$10.00	$1.20	$12.00
2	$12.00	$1.20	$14.40
3	$14.40	$1.20	$17.28
4	$17.28	$1.20	$20.74
5	$20.74	$1.20	$24.88
6	$24.88	$1.20	$29.86
7	$29.86	$1.20	$35.83
8	$35.83	$1.20	$43.00
9	$43.00	$1.20	$51.60
10	$51.60	$1.20	$61.92
11	$61.92	$1.20	$74.30
12	$74.30	$1.20	$89.16
13	$89.16	$1.20	$106.99
14	$106.99	$1.20	$128.39
15	$128.39	$1.20	$154.07
16	$154.07	$1.20	$184.88
17	$184.88	$1.20	$221.86
18	$221.86	$1.20	$266.23
19	$266.23	$1.20	$319.48
20	$319.48	$1.20	$383.38
21	$383.38	$1.20	$460.05
22	$460.05	$1.20	$552.06
23	$552.06	$1.20	$662.47
24	$662.47	$1.20	$794.97
25	$794.97	$1.20	$953.96
26	$953.96	$1.20	$1,144.75
27	$1,144.75	$1.20	$1,373.71
28	$1,373.71	$1.20	$1,648.45
29	$1,648.45	$1.20	$1,978.14
30	$1,978.14	$1.20	$2,373.76

Now imagine if you started with $100 first bet, or betting on games higher than odds 1.20. 

you can do a similar trial on your excel sheet to find out the potential earning! 

But of course in all betting strategies, there are pros and cons

Pros

• Small capital to start with
• Potential to win HUGE

Cons

• Need to win many games in a row
• Would you dare to place a bet of  $1978, at bet no.29, when you can just cash out and take your winnings. There will be a dilemma on when to cash out.

Some strategy which I suggest

• Start with smaller goals like winning 5-10 games, and cash out. This will increase you bankroll, while you increase your stake
• Stay focus and bet on game which you are confident of winning. 
• Do not have to bet on that day, if there are no good games.
• Do not double up after losses - see Martingale

So having said that, I am also embarking on a Journey from $10 to $10,000 using this compound staking method. My record stands at 10 winning games in a row. Bet ranging from 1.20- 1.80. 

Taking a bigger risk in the middle would boost your roll tremendously following in 

And that my friend, is the power of Compound Staking.

Gambler's Fallacy

Gambler's Fallacy

• We tend to see pattern as independent, random chain of events
• We believed that based on a series of previous event, the future event is more likely to occur than the actual odds suggest

Coin Flipping

After flipping a coin for 8 times, it came out heads 8 times in a row. One would assume that it is more likely that the next flip will more likely be tails. If it still result in heads, the 10th flip will even more likely than the 9th flip to be tails.

However, no matter how many times the coin is being flip. The probability of heads or tails for the next flip remains at 50%.

But why does it shows 80 heads and 20 tails when I flip the coin 100 times?

The answer is Variance.

The Gambler's Fallacy is the main reason why people use the Martingale strategy, which involves increasing their stakes after a loss. However, there is no guarantee that a wager will win because the probability remains the same, and a series of past events has no influence over future events.

Still unconvinced? I know some of you insist that tails will seriously more likely to appear after a long streak of heads.

In May 2014, after gathering more than 550,000 sports bets from more than 700 online gamblers, (Xu and Harvey, 2014), found out:

• Hot hands really exist (winning or losing streaks)
• Gamblers believe in gambler's fallacy 
• Hot hands is caused by the belief in gambler's fallacy

People who win, are more likely to win again, because they chose safer odds to bet on, which were more likely to win. 

People who lost, are more likely to lose again, because they chose risker odds to bet on, hoping to recover their losses, which were more likely to lose.

By selecting safer odds after winning and riskier odds after losing demonstrates that gamblers believe in the gambler's fallacy because they expect their luck to reverse the next bet. Thus, by believing in gambler's fallacy, they create their own hot hands.

References

Xu, J., & Harvey, H. (2014).  Carry on winning: The gambler's fallacy creates hot hands effects in online gambling. Cognition, 131,2, 173-180. 

Should I Use Martingale in Sports Betting?

The Martingale Strategy is a popular betting strategy that was popular since the 18th century. It is one of the simplest strategy compared to others like Flat-betting, Unit-Size betting, or Compounded Strategy. 

The concept of martingale strategy is to generate profit by chasing previous losses by betting with a larger amount. 

Martingale Strategy only follow 2 simple rules

• Flat bet when win
• Double bet size when lose 

This strategy works bet when the odds of winning is 50% and payout is 1:2. However, it is often difficult to punt on a football game with odds 2.00 that wins consistently. 

For example:

Scenario 1:

Player bets on Team A with $10 at odds $2.00. 

If Team A wins, players keeps the profit and bet $10 on the next game. 

$10 bet return $20

Profit : $10

Scenario 2:

Player bets on Team A with $10 at odds $2.00. 

If Team A loses Bet 1 (-$10), Player will bet $20 on the next game at odds 2.00.

$20 bet returns $40

$40 - $20(capital) -$10(loss from Bet 1) = +$10

Profit: +$10

Scenario 3:

Player loses 5 games in a row, winning only at Bet 6

Bet 1: -$10

Bet 2: -$20

Bet 3: -$40

Bet 4: -$80

Bet 5: -$160

Bet 6: $320 640 1280 2560     5120

Total amount bet: $320 + $160 + $80 + $40 + $20 + $10 = $630

Amount won: $640

Profit: $10

Pros

• Using the Martingale Strategy, you will almost be guaranteed profit if you have a large enough bankroll.

Cons

• Using the Martingale Strategy, you will need a extremely large bankroll to tide over long losing streak. A 10 game losing streak would amount to $5,120 and more than $10,000 if you started out with $10 on Bet 1. As you can see, the bet size increase exponentially. The regular punter would not be able to stand the heat of a losing streak.

• In football betting, it is hard to pick winners at odds 2.00.
• You are essentially risking a HUGE amount to win back your initial bet - $10.

Some of you might encounter this before. Manchester United past 5 games have been Total Goal Under 2.5. Let's just back Manchester United Total Goal over 2.5 until we win. This is a classic example of Gambler's Fallacy where past events have no influence over future event.

Should I Use Martingale?

You can choose to use Martingale Strategy if:

• Willing to risk a big amount to win a small amount.
• Have a Huge Bankroll.
• You are playing short-term. Hit and run after a designation winning amount.
• You are winning to lose your whole bankroll.

You should AVOID Martingale Strategy if:

• You think you can be a long-term winner using Martingale.
• You have a small bankroll.
• You are not willing to lose your bankroll in a short period of time.
• You think you are due to win - Gambler's Fallacy